Some good polling data came out today for Donald Trump. First, a Quinnipiac poll showed that several swing states are actually a lot closer than many people imagined, including myself. Trump is even leading in Ohio, according to this survey. By the way, this is one of the more respected polls out there, so this is pretty big news.
In Florida, Clinton leads Trump, 43 percent to 42 percent, while Sanders earned 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent. While Clinton holds a 13-point advantage among Florida women — 48 percent to 35 percent — Trump’s lead among men is equally large, at 49 percent to 36 percent. Independent Florida voters are split, 39 percent to 39 percent, while along racial lines, white voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate 52 percent to 33 percent. Among nonwhite voters, 63 percent to 20 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Clinton’s favorability in Florida is a net negative 20 points (37 percent to 57 percent), though Trump earned the same numbers. For Sanders, 43 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him, 41 percent unfavorable and 14 percent said they did not know enough to have an opinion.
In Ohio, registered voters preferred Trump to Clinton, 43 percent to 39 percent, while Sanders edged Trump 43 percent to 41 percent. Trump leads among men in Ohio, 51 percent to 36 percent, while women prefer Clinton in the state 43 percent to 36 percent. While 49 percent to 32 percent of white voters go for the Republican candidate, a whopping 76 percent to 14 percent of nonwhite voters said they will go for the Democratic candidate. Among voters ages 18 to 34, Clinton leads 43 percent to 39 percent, while voters older than 65 preferred Trump 46 percent to 40 percent. Among independents, 40 percent said they would back Trump and 37 percent would go for Clinton.
In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads 43 percent to 42 percent, mirroring the gender and racial gaps in the other swing states. Among women, Clinton leads 51 percent to 32 percent, while Trump leads with men 54 percent to 33 percent. Clinton holds a 7-point lead among voters ages 18 to 34 (49 percent to 42 percent), while Trump commands the same level of support among voters 65 and older. White voters said they would support the Republican candidate 48 percent to 37 percent, while nonwhite voters said they would support the Democrat, 74 percent to 14 percent.
Another big data point for Trumpsters to trumpet came with the West Virginia exit polls that hit earlier this evening…
Nearly half of the voters in the West Virginia Democratic primary who backed Bernie Sanders say they would vote for Republican Donald Trump in the fall presidential election, according to exit polls reported by CBS News.
Forty-four percent of Sanders supporters surveyed said they would rather back the presumptive GOP nominee in November, with only 23 percent saying they’d support Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
I’m not someone that thinks Trump is going to roll, nor do I believe it will be a Hillary Clinton romp. I tend to see closer race that goes down to the wire. But it will say this: People who hate Trump and think he’s going to get blown out (many media types) should examine these polls carefully and reconsider. Things could always change of course, but I think this lends credence to what I’ve been saying. If Hillary and her team take this guy lightly, like many in the GOP did, they’re gonna end up getting beat.
Hell, they very well might end up losing anyway if he can continue with these kinds of numbers. If Trump can carry this sort of thing over from state to state and make a play for disaffected Bernie Sanders supporters, it’s going to be a long, hard fall for Clinton.