I know the media seems pretty confident in piling on when it comes to the Donald Trump campaign. I will be the first to admit that June has been a rough month. The attacks on the judge of Mexican heritage was a mistake because it took focus away from the Trump supporters who got beat up in San Jose. It also hurt in the polling, which is easy for anyone to see. I am not like some pundits, however. I still think Trump is actually in a damn good position…if he does a few things right.
First off, no more diversions like the judge thing. Keep laser-focused on the economy and the shitty US infrastructure. Of course, Republicans aren’t exactly known as the party of infrastructure spending, but that’s one of the things that always made Trump so appealing to me. He’s not beholden to party dogma, at least not much of it. I believe Trump needs to spend the time between now and the election telling the American people that he has nothing on his mind other than making deals for them, and indeed deals between the two parties. One of the biggest problems people have with Washington D.C. is that nothing gets done anymore. If Trump can seize on that while emphasizing his independent nature it could pay dividends.
Everyone always knew politics was a nasty and somewhat disgusting business (even though I love it). But they let a lot slide when shit was getting done. Trump can represent a return to that era. And speaking of eras, this is a new one. People acting like he can ignore minorities altogether are mental. If I was running the campaign, I would push strongly for a minority vice presidential selection. It’s not even about Trump pulling a lot of support from these sectors. Even though polling in the past showed him making inroads with blacks, no one expects him to do all that well with “people of color.” This exercise is really for is white people who don’t want to vote for someone they think is racist. To be clear, I don’t believe he’s racist at all, but the image does exist in the media and it’s worth thinking about how to mount an effective counter.
By the way, I think this poll is going to be very close to what we’re dealing with in the fall (and I’m not even examining the battleground state polling yet, where Trump also looks very competitive):
Every single vote will make the difference in an election like this. And as we’ve seen over the past week in Great Britain, the pollsters and chattering classes have been badly missing the mark as of late. People who think Hillary Clinton is in the clear haven’t been paying attention. Hell, I’ve been paying very close attention and I still missed the mark when it came down to predicting Brexit. You want to know why? Because I was too wedded to the conventional wisdom. If Team Clinton makes that same mistake, they’re setting themselves up for a loss. It’s not going to be easy for Trump, but provided he makes some more smart moves over these next 5 months, the presidency is within his grasp.