We all expected Trump to get a bounce from the convention, although I don’t believe many of us expected it to be quite this big…
Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.
There hasn’t been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN’s polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
The new findings mark Trump’s best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump’s new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump’s convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.
Look at that bump among independents. Wow. In fact, that’s the exact area many Trump haters have been pointing to as his Achilles’ heel, since Romney carried the same cohort by 5 points back in 2012. Needless to say, this is a big deal for the campaign if it holds. Other polls will need to show similar numbers before I hold this up as 100% gold, but this is not some jabroni poll. CNN has one of the best polling operations.
The ball is in your court, Hillary. You need to have a good week and I must say, it’s off to a pretty inauspicious start.