Trump

If elite Republicans and the #NeverTrump brigade screws Donald Trump out of the nomination, one-third of his supporters say they will abandon whoever is selected to take his place.

From Reuters

 

The results are bad news for Trump’s rivals as well as party elites opposed to the real estate billionaire, suggesting that an alternative Republican nominee for the Nov. 8 presidential race would have a tougher road against the Democrats.

“If it’s a close election, this is devastating news” for the Republicans, said Donald Green, an expert on election turnout at Columbia University.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 30 to April 8 asked Trump’s Republican supporters two questions: if Trump wins the most delegates in the primaries but loses the nomination, what would they do on Election Day, and how would it impact their relationship with the Republican Party?

Sixty-six percent said they would vote for the candidate who eventually wins the nomination, while the remaining third were split between a number of alternatives such as not voting, supporting a third-party candidate, and switching parties and voting for the Democratic nominee…

Green said the departure of even a small number of Republicans would make it tough for the party to prevent the Democrats from winning the White House, especially if the election is again decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of battleground states.

Personally, I think this number may go even higher before everything is said and done, assuming Trump does end up getting the short end of the stick at the convention scheduled to take place in Cleveland, July 18th-21st. Keep in mind, this is based on the prospect of him getting more delegates than everyone else but still being passed over. That seems like a safe bet, since Cruz has pretty much no chance of coming into Cleveland with the most delegates overall.

Screw Trump over at your own peril, GOP. Not only will it likely hand the White House to Hillary Clinton, but it could cost you voters for years to come.

29 comments
  1. I agree, because I’m one who will abandon the party. But I also believe the current GOP would rather Hillary than Trump. Mainly because of the numbers who have said so.

  2. I will not only abandon the party, I will abandon the concept of Democracy.
    Seeing cruz cultists and SJW’s in action has utterly buried the so-called validity of enlightenment values.
    This world is Killzone Shadowfall, and we are living on the Vekta side of the wall.
    At least the islamists are open and honest with their tyranny.

    1. The entire system seems built to be riggable.

      If it were a videogame I would call it broken.
      The fact that the majority of people have voted for him but now Ryan might be chosen by the donor establishment if the delegate quote is not met is just ridiculous.

      Like, can that even be called democracy anymore at all?

    2. I don’t know, the tyranny of the 1% and Corporate America is pretty open and honest. : / I’m starting to see the world in the terms of the EVE Online universe.

    3. Do you not understand how contested conventions work? This has been going since the beginning of the party. Or do you expect the Republicans to change 200 year old rules for Donald Trump and his supporters?

      1856 Republican National Convention in Philadelphia, PA
      Ballots: 11
      Leader on the first ballot: Rep. Nathaniel Banks of MA
      Ultimate Nominee: Fmr Sen. John C. Fremont of CA

      1860 Republican National Convention in Chicago, IL
      Ballots: 3
      Leader on the first ballot: Gov. William Seward of NY
      Ultimate nominee: Fmr Rep. Abraham Lincoln of IL

      1876 Republican National Convention in Cincinnati, Ohio
      Ballots: 7
      Leader on the first ballot: Rep. James G. Blaine
      Ultimate nominee: Gov. Rutherford B. Hayes

      1880 Republican National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
      Ballots: 36
      Leader on the first ballot: Fmr Pres. Ulysses S. Grant
      Ultimate nominee: Rep. James A. Garfield

      1884 Republican National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
      Ballots: 4
      Leader on the first ballot: Sec. James G. Blaine
      Ultimate winner: Sec. James G. Blaine

      1888 Republican National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
      Ballots:8
      Leader on the first ballot: Sen. John Sherman
      Ultimate nominee: Sen. Benjamin Harrison

      1912 Republican National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
      Ballots: 1
      Leader on the 1st ballot: Pres. William H. Taft
      Ultimate nominee: Pres. William H. Taft

      1920 Republican National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
      Ballots: 10
      Leader on the first ballot: Gen. Leonard Wood
      Ultimate nominee: Sen. Warren G. Harding

      1940 Republican National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
      Ballots: 6
      Leader on the first ballot: Mr. Thomas Dewey, an attorney
      Ultimate nominee: Wendell Wilkie, a businessman

      1952 Republican National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
      Ballots: 1
      Ultimate nominee: General Dwight D. Eisenhower

      1976 Republican National Convention in Kansas City, Missouri
      Ballots: 1
      Ultimate nominee: President Gerald Ford

      Abraham Lincoln was elected on a contested ballot. He wasn’t the leading nominee. Can you imagine what history would look like if people like you were running around demanding special rules back then? How much longer would slavery have lasted? Oh but its different right? Because you want what you want and Trump said that Cruz was a liar. And big business CEO’s don’t lie about their enemies…

      1. You are aware that soon after 1856 the USA descended into CIVIL WAR right?
        Contested conventions are usually the scenes of rioting and are invariably followed by loss of faith in the party and sweeping victories for the opposing party.
        Subversion of the electorate is Anti-American and bad policy.
        The GOP is sending a loud, clear signal that it is willing to fall on its sword for the donors who are stripping America bare rather than grow as a party of the electorate.

        1. I’m sorry what? I am aware that the Civil War began in 1861 because several states had seceded.Wow, you are a real history buff. Rioting? I don’t remember there being rioting at the 76′ Republican Convention and I was alive back then. You’re just making shit up at this point.

          We’ve had 12 contested conventions and none of them caused the Civil War. Many argue that Abraham Lincoln’s election caused the South to secede, but those same people will also argue that he was one of the greatest presidents in US history. Something I don’t think you ever bothered to learn. BTW, are you even old enough to vote?

          1. I notice you latching onto the civil war line and going berzerk while failing to refute my point.
            You carefully avoid the fact that all the rest of the contested conventions resulted in major losses for the party.
            You then go into ad-homs.
            You are absolutely irrational and are projecting.

          2. Your not knowing basic history and my observation that you’re making things up are not an ad hominems. I’m sorry if you decided to pick a candidate based on emotion. I’m sorry that you have no idea how the Republican delegates choose a nominee. I’m sorry that you skipped history class. But none of these things are my problems. They’re your problems.

            When you get older, you’ll realize that certain things matter. That you can’t change the rules in the middle of the game because you don’t like them. That you at some point you have to stop acting like spoiled child and grow up. That you are not special. Learn to lose with grace. That if you don’t do these things no one will respect you. Go back and take and American History class.

        2. And out of curiosity…

          When the candidates go to Cleveland and their delegates step forward, if Trump doesn’t have the requisite number, what is supposed to happen in your opinion? Who do you think is supposed to declare him the nominee? Who do you think has the power to toss out rules that have been in place for 200 years after the votes have already been tallied? I’m trying to understand why the commenters here think Trump should get to cheat but the other candidates should have to obey the rules.

          These are fair questions.

          1. Let’s see. He has the most delegates. he should be the nominee. At the first ballot, they count them all, and whoever has the most votes is declared.

          2. So you do think that Trump should be able to cheat and the others should have to follow the rules. Why don’t you just come out and say that instead of claiming that its unfair? Trump knew the rules going in. So it’s not unfair. You and your fellow supporters just want to be able to cheat.

          3. Sadly, yes, that’s exactly what the typical Trump supporter thinks: Any outcome that doesn’t end with America’s Crybaby “winning, winning, winning” is, by default, unfair.

          4. Nope. Unless Trump gets 1237 delegates (which is looking increasingly unlikely every day) he WON’T have “the most delegates”.
            Here’s a lesson in basic math: there are a total of 2472 delegates to be won. If Trump gets to the convention with 1100 delegates, that means there are 1372 delegates who are NOT committed to Trump. See how that works? There will then be a second ballot, at which point many of the delegates may commit to another candidate. Such as the 171 delegates won by Marco Rubio.

            This is where Trump is going to fail. The so-called “great deal maker” has failed to make ANY significant deals and, during the four days of the convention, will be hemorrhaging delegates to Cruz. You can blame Trump’s loss on whatever idiot (probably Trump) thought it would be a good idea for him to run against his own party.

  3. It depends on whether it is 1220 or 990. We know some of the other delegates (rubio, kasich, even carson) would have gone to Trump if the winnowing was faster. It is likely to be above 1237 on the first ballot.
    Cruz will sink below the event horizon before May. He may be trying for a second ballot win but the GOP lies like McConnell.
    That will affect the final primaries. Cruz as nominee vs Cruz as spoiler.

  4. political parties shouldn’t even exist in the first place. they do nothing but divide the nation.

  5. It also makes the whole voting thing kinda useless. Like why would people bother going to caucuses and primaries if in the end the convention can just name the person they want anyway? If this happens to Trump, then I’ll be turned off of politics all together.

    1. Read up on the Constitution. The United States is not a democracy; it is a democratic republic. The Founding Fathers were well aware that people often vote with their spleen instead of their head; it’s why George Washington declined to accept the crown he was offered after the Revolutionary War.

  6. That’s not even taking into account people that only got involved to vote Trump in the first place and might not have been counted as republicans here.
    He’s pulled a lot of apolitical/disenfranchised/neutral and even democrats.

    1. Political exile of the progressive infested Democratic party right here. Liberals make me weep for the word liberal. Trump is my man this election. He’s basically a democrat anyways.

  7. I understand how the GOP wrote their election rules (and they’re all scumbag rules designed to keep non-establishment candidates out… the fucking nerve) and I think that at least 1/3 of Trump supporters would abandon the GOP if he gets screwed out of the nomination. The simple fact is Bush Jr. was the single most abusive piece of shit the GOP ever had in the White House (and when you consider Reagan and Nixon that’s quite the accomplishment) and severely damaged the GOPs ability to connect with moderates.

    Basically the hillbilly put all his eggs in the Evangelical basket, which is a fervent, but shrinking one (fortunately for the sake of sanity and intelligence…. adults and their mean-spirited imaginary friends) and permanently tarnished the image of the GOP. Combine that with just how pro-1% they are with their boot-licking and swearing undying fealty to their masters aka the Koch Bros that they’d shut down the government again to get their way, even at the expense of the American people who voted for them (because fuck the electorate, after all, they’re not where the majority of campaign contributions come from) and you’ve got the image of the modern Republican party. Oh and the probably-maybe-definitely-who-can-honestly-tell-racially motivated obstructionism they’ve been engaged in for the last 8 years (mostly the last 4, but they’ve been whiny bitches the entire time) hasn’t helped either.

    My point is, Trump resonates with a more… patriotic, would be one way of putting it (nationalist would be the other, but that has some negative connotations the liberal media loves to bring up) sort of voter. He also speaks the language of business very clearly and has zero fucks to give about political correctness. And as far as campaign contributions go the only dick he’s sucking is his own, which is a pretty admirable trick.

    Win, lose, or get utterly screwed, Trump’s campaign has done what I believe to be irreparable harm to the GOP in that it has demonstrated to the rank and file republican’s and right leaning moderates that the establishment elite consider them as nothing but fodder; a means to an end. They have the gall to declare “what the party is about” when that is ENTIRELY the will of the electorate. And for that they have my eternal thanks as I am decidedly not a Republican since I’m gay and an atheist and boy howdy those folks sure don’t like me.

    1. Hell man, even left leaning moderates are all over this guy. Ralph and I are both about as close to “Trump Democrats” as a person can be, except with the whole no longer being democrat thing going on. A number of political exiles from the left look at Trump and see him for the 80s democrat that he really is.

      The GOP fails to recognize that a substantial portion of its base are blue dog democrats and working class men who are much more concerned about the botched nature of our nation’s trade deals, our uselessly hostile relationship with Russia, and unchecked illegal immigration than they are the about the moral flapping of some bible belt idiot who speaks of “family values” in front of a camera while fucking whores and soliciting cops in airport bathrooms.

      The GOP is dead one way or another. Right now, all they’re really doing is deciding if they want to go out with dignity.

    2. This is the year the GOP gets to choose between reinventing itself or becoming entirely irrelevant. Trump offers a new republican constituency, his style and platform unifies defecting mainstream liberals, alienated blue collar working Joes, the alternative right and much of the rest of the ever growing anti-establishment mob.

      The sorts of establishment republicans who want to block him need to face reality. Every year this nation’s undertakers put thousands more of them into the ground and every year new democrats swarm over the borders, come of age in welfare plantations and spew forth from liberal arts universities.

      Whatever the establishment republican base want to call themselves they’re a spent force and an insufficient one. If the republican party hopes to survive in any form it needs to reach out to guys like me. Guys in their early thirties working rough jobs but holding out that ‘murica can maybe turn it’s shit around before it gets really bad.

  8. I bet it’s closer to 50 percent than one third. Cruz or Ryan don’t have a chance. Outside of the low info CruzCult, no one can stand Lyin’ Ted and his inbred bot army. He and his bots are some of the most repulsive stupid liars I have even seen. Ryan? LOL. Not a chance. The GOPe’s plan to save the party by trying to give it to Hillary seems like a suicide mission to me.

  9. This is something that many career politicians have yet to understand.
    We’re not voting for a republican and it happens to be trump, we’re voting for trump who just happens to be running as a republican and he’s only running as a republican because it’s a system that makes it nearly impossible for a third party to win.

    I have no loyalty to the rep or dem base because at the end of the day they’re owned and run by the same people with the same goals.

    1. If your voting for Trump, you’re not voting for a Republican. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that he is running against his own party. What candidate in their right mind does that?

  10. Stupidity doesn’t just run in the Trump family….it fucking STAMPEDES:

    Two of Donald Trump’s adult children, Ivanka “You’re creeping me out, dad” Trump and Eric “My winery has no association with my father” Trump, both MISSED the filing deadline for registering with the Republican Party, so they are ineligible to vote in New York’s closed primary.:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/ivanka-and-eric-trump-loyal-offspring-proud-202153319.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

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